Karabakh: Baku and Yerevan are not very satisfied with the role of Moscow
04 August 2021
n Russia, over the past twenty years, a system of irreplaceable power has developed, under which, under Putin and his team, there is such a political long-liver - the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Vladimir Zhirinovsky.
He has never been in power - for the 75-year-old politician, the current elections to the State Duma are already the eighth. And although Zhirinovsky bears the guise of a jester, he is not a fool. Its task is to voice information in a joking manner that the official authorities, for whatever reason, do not want to voice themselves.
This happens literally on all issues of foreign and domestic policy. In foreign policy, Vladimir Zhirinovsky has been "specializing" in the Ukrainian issue for the past few years. What is worth his assertion that flight MH 17 was shot down by "Ukrainians, militants, the Kiev regime" or that Ukraine should be expelled from the United Nations (UN) for the crimes it allegedly commits.
And now he switched to Azerbaijan. Moreover, knowing the eastern customs, his insults are clearly directed not against the state, but against personally the leader of Ilham Aliyev. It is hardly worth listing what he said there, but note that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan has already reacted in the form of a note of protest from the Russian Federation.
It is much more interesting to figure out why Zhirinovsky is excited right now, although it would seem that Russia is acting as a kind of international mediator in resolving the situation around Karabakh. However, in reality, both Baku and Yerevan are not very satisfied with the role of Moscow, and now there is a process of looking for another international mediator.
The fact is that for Moscow the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is of course important, but it is only "one of". As it is seen, today the main focus of the Kremlin is on the situation in Donbass and on relations with Ukraine. At the same time, the results of the Second Karabakh War did not satisfy either Armenia or Azerbaijan - on the one hand, the Armenian side is dissatisfied with the fact that peacekeepers de facto control the entry into Karabakh from the Armenian side and do not allow many journalists, employees of non-profit organizations and public figures from for the presence of passports of Western countries.
Finally, official Yerevan looks with great apprehension at the project to unblock transport corridors. Baku has made it clear that it is primarily interested only in the railway to Nakhichevan, which runs along the Iranian border. But in order to open communication with Russia, the Armenians need another road: Kars (Turkey) - Gyumri - Ijevan - Gazakh (Azerbaijan).
Of course, the West also has a role in this intricate scheme, but not too great. Both Yerevan and Baku have already appealed to the United States, the European Union and NATO on issues of concern to them. But the West simply does not have real opportunities to achieve the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Karabakh or to return Armenian prisoners from Azerbaijan.
Such is the geostrategic impasse, from which there is still no way out of it that is acceptable for Russia.
The author is a Ukrainian military expert.
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