New Russian military forces may appear in Zangezur?
17 May 2021
he current aggravation on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and related steps can be very painful for the parties in these events, as well as for some other countries. And the consequences of this entire can be very bad.
As you understand, we are talking about the area of Syunik and Gegharkunik regions border of Armenia. And about Armenia's request to Russia for military support.
What exactly is "under the carpet" of these events and steps that should come?
In my opinion, any aggravation of the situation now are in favor of the current Armenian Government and ruling politics. The Armenia cannot elect a Prime minister. And the well-known law of the politics says: To distract people from internal problems, it is necessary to switch them over to external problems. And for this purpose it is necessary to have such external problems...
Next issue: all these things are getting very complicated for Russia. Because of Russia really has a Treaty with Armenia on mutual military assistance. And since Armenia has asked Russia for help, it is either necessary for Russia to convince it - and consequently the whole world! - that there is no threat, and that military assistance is not required. Or - to begin pulling in troops, weapons, and in fact - to fight.
That is absolutely unnecessary for Russia, even if the current Russian leadership is prone to get involved in any foreign policy adventure with a military undertone. There are many reasons for this unnecessarily.
First of all, some issues are already difficult on Russia's borders in the South and Southwest, and in the "Russian world" of Ukraine, where "Russia is not there, but we will not abandon our own Russians!"
In addition, there is a complete mess on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where there is already a shooting, and whose leaders have rushed to Moscow, seeking Russia's help against each other. It's not like it's inconvenient to refuse Russia. And to fight on so many fronts simultaneously - even Russia, especially in the current economic situation, is unlikely to pull out...
And plus - the Middle East. I mean -Turkey. And I mean Israel and Palestine. Again, Russia is an old friend and ally of "offended" Palestine. And at the same time Mr. Putin is a good interlocutor of the Israeli Prime minister Mr. Netanyahu. And in this situation when Russia should support one and lose another, it can lose something bigger.
And moreover, Turkey has said that it will not forgive Israel's repression of the Palestinians. And if Putin fails to listen to Turkey, Turkey will immediately increase its assistance and participation on the side of Azerbaijan in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
The conclusion: Russia will definitely help Armenia now. By militarily. But not in the frames of the Treaty of military help. And not with its own Russian troops.
I'm sure in principal, that in the near future, in this new place of the conflict, on the side of Armenia will appear the Russian Private military companies. Which will "resolve issues", and at the same time "...there is no them there!”.
If they have not already there...
The author is a military-political analyst, an expert in the field of strategic security.
(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at [email protected]