15:15     30 April 2021    

Russia and Georgia are focused on restoration of diplomatic relations and, perhaps, this event will take place soon. Russian and Georgian sources and the media of both countries are seriously discussing this.

Russia and Georgia are focused on restoration of diplomatic relations and, perhaps, this event will take place soon. Russian and Georgian sources and the media of both countries are seriously discussing this. How realistic is such a political scenario in the region and what is it connected with? - Russian political expert, Doctor of Political Science, Candidate of Philosophy, State Advisor of the Russian Federation of the first class Tatyana Poloskova told Baku Tribune. - Russian and Georgian media, political experts of both countries have recently talked about Russia's desire to establish diplomatic relations with Georgia. What is the reason for such a clear turn in the change in the political course of Russia and what are its preconditions? - According to the information of the Public Opinion Foundation, only 8 percent of Russians have a negative attitude towards Georgia. Georgia, despite the rhetoric of the authorities and bureaucratic difficulties, is one of the most popular destinations for Russian tourism; there is a steady tendency for Russians to move to Georgia for permanent residence. Georgia has clear and civilized rules for running a joint business. Only a few people show hostility towards Russians in everyday life. These are human factors in the need for rapprochement. And besides that, there is a historical and cultural affinity. Geopolitically Orthodox Georgia is extremely important for us. And the Georgian society is ready for dialogue even on the most sensitive issues. Thus, according to a public opinion survey conducted by CRRC Georgia, 57% of respondents believe that conflicts in the 90s could have been avoided, 18% do not agree with this opinion, and 23% do not have a formed position. As for the events of 2008, 55% do not agree that everything was done to prevent the war. 78% of Georgian respondents preferred to return the territory. Only 13% supported membership in NATO and the EU, while 7% refrained from answering. The problem of modern Russia is that we do little to realize the realities of Georgian society. For the government, the truth is being replaced by propaganda slogans. Desire to please the authorities. But the authorities leave, the people remain. A certain informational background is now being accumulated to correct the foreign policy course towards Georgia. Not so long ago, a new Russian-Georgian expert platform appeared: "Russia and Georgia: a future without conflicts". The purpose of it is to develop and discuss models and forms of dialogue on the way of restoring diplomatic relations between our countries. Negotiations between Russia and Georgia on the restoration of diplomatic relations, albeit in the format of public diplomacy, or meetings in the fields during official events, never subsided. And against the background of the deterioration of the Russian-Abkhaz dialogue, Russian-Georgian contacts could only be intensified. - How will the fate of Abkhazia further develop in this case? Did it take place as a state? After all, it is quite understandable that the improvement of relations with Georgia will lead to a revision of Russian-Abkhaz relations? - The fate of Abkhazia will be decided by its people. Abkhazia is now a partially recognized state that does not have at its disposal the necessary internal potential for self-development. And it is forced to rely on external resources. This position is stated not only by many experts, but also by Russian diplomats who have worked in Sukhumi. The term "failed state" in relation to Abkhazia is used not only by Western analysts. Any proclaimed independence must have the economic, military, and managerial resources to ensure this independence. In Abkhazia, this resource is clearly not sufficient. Russia has made multibillion-dollar investments in the restoration of the Abkhaz economy. But in Abkhazia terrible devastation reigns, nothing changes. A citizen of Russia, even one who has real estate in Abkhazia even before the collapse of the USSR, even one who was born there, cannot obtain the citizenship of this country. A citizen of Russia from the Russian region can buy real estate only in a new building; in order to participate in business, he definitely needs a partner - a citizen of Abkhazia. The problems with the return of real estate to Russian refugees have not yet been resolved. On October 30th, 2020, the problems of returning real estate to Russian refugees - and there are not even hundreds of such people, but thousands - were raised in the program "Man and the Law". And it turned out that sometimes even the decisions of the Supreme Court of Abkhazia on the return of property to the Russians are not implemented, but are sabotaged by local law enforcement agencies. They say that the citizens of Abkhazia already live in these houses and apartments. For decades, Russian refugees have been living in rented apartments in Krasnodar, Stavropol and Rostov-on-Don. The year 2021 can be designated as the period of the first major public crisis in Russian-Abkhaz relations. And the starting point from which the development of relations can follow several scenarios. And we move on to the most uncomfortable issue of the Russian-Abkhaz agenda: how profitable is it for Russia to keep three kilometers from a strategically important facility - the Sochi airport - a territory torn apart by economic and political crises, stuffed with weapons, where, to put it mildly, they don't like us, but are they actively using our resource? To finance this territory, to pay pensions and salaries to certain categories of citizens. To have serious problems because of this territory with Georgia, which is no less important for us, and with other countries. In a situation of growing "swing" of bilateral relations, naturally, the desire of the Georgian side to return the lost territories is intensifying. And here the return model will be more multi-pass than in the Karabakh version. With the participation of not only the traditional countries-players in the region. It should be noted that the Krasnodar Armenian diaspora shows a clear and undisguised interest in the territories of the Gagra region. Now it is difficult to say which model will be used in this process. Russia's interest in Abkhazia, if its authorities do not agree to the demands put forward, will decrease, and the irritation of the Russian population caused by the need to spend money outside during a pandemic will grow. And not so, despite the persistent anti-Georgian bias of the Abkhazian propaganda, the attitude of the Abkhazian society towards Georgia is unequivocal. Especially among young people. - Now Russia's relations with the West are tense to the limit. In the event of a rapprochement between Russia and Georgia, how will the geopolitics of the region and Russia's relations with the West change? - Russia's relations with the West have acquired such an abnormal character, largely due to the fact that Russian foreign policy has turned into a set of propaganda clichés. The quality of the staff of the diplomatic department has fallen. And diplomacy, instead of fencing and chess games, turned into a fist fight. Sometimes, also with public obscenities. And here's the result. We need to look for ways out of the crisis in relations with the West. I think that serious changes in this direction will take place in the very near future. 2020 was a turning point for the so-called "the post-Soviet space", since Turkey has declared itself as an active and successful participant in the resolution of protracted conflicts. And how about a state that is moving from the category of regional powers to the category of world powers. Largely, thanks to the support from Turkey, although she did not take direct part in the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict was successfully resolved and historical justice triumphed. For the first time since the collapse of the USSR, not Russia, but the Turkish state played a significant role in strengthening peace and stability in the region. And this is the beginning of a new transformation of the former post-Soviet space. What role will Russia play in this? We will receive an answer to this question as soon as possible.