12:09     20 April 2021    

Armenia and Russia are discussing the possibility of expanding the Russian 102nd military base and creating its bridgehead in the Syunik region. "These discussions are very effective. Russian border guards are involved in protecting the state border in Syunik," said Armenian Prime Minister Nikolo Pashinyan.

Armenia and Russia are discussing the possibility of expanding the Russian 102nd military base and creating its bridgehead in the Syunik region. "These discussions are very effective. Russian border guards are involved in protecting the state border in Syunik," said Armenian Prime Minister Nikolo Pashinyan. Frankly, Pashinyan's statement is primarily aimed at the internal audience. The politician is preparing for the parliamentary elections scheduled for June. He seeks to enlist the support of the population - and for the sake of this short-term goal, he has once again changed his rhetoric, adapting to the needs of the audience. It's no secret that Pashinyan is considered a pro-Western politician in Yerevan. However, not all armenians who supported him in 2018 and delegated the powers of prime minister to him adhere to this position. The politician came to power on a wave of dissatisfaction with the previous regime - the rule of the "Karabakh Clan", which for two decades plundered the country. It was around the anti-corruption idea that supporters of changes during the revolution united. But this did not mean that the people who took to the streets were protesting against the foreign policy course of Serzh Sargsyan. Orientation towards Russia, which supposedly remains the only guarantee of the country's security from external threats, remains a widespread point of view in Armenia. At the same time, Pashinyan's insufficient "pro-Russian" character is used against him by the opposition, which is trying to present this as the key reason for the defeat in the war in 2020. Noticing in this way the traces of their own incompetence, as well as inflaming inappropriate expansionist revanchism, representatives of the old Armenian government seek to present themselves as friends Russia, capable of restoring shaken trust in relations with Moscow and ensuring future success for Yerevan. In fact, they put the Armenian electorate before a choice - an honest, pro-Western, but lost Karabakh Pashinyan, or somewhat compromised by corruption scandals, but time-tested friends of Russia, who, due to this, will supposedly be able to correct the latest foreign policy failures. In turn, Pashinyan, with his latest statements, wants to neutralize these theses of his opponents. Stressing the importance of allied relations with the Russian Federation, he shows the electorate that they will not have to make the above choice; that he himself is in no way opposed to cooperation with Moscow, and the Armenian people will not lose anything by giving them victory in the voting process. As confirmation of his commitment to an alliance with Russia, he speaks of the expansion of the Russian military presence in the Armenian territory. However, there is one point worth paying attention to. In the context of Russian bases, Pashinyan mentioned the Syunik region. This is a territory located in the south of the country, and according to which, in accordance with the agreements concluded on November 10, 2020, a transport corridor between the main territory of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan enclave is to be opened. Taking into account the mood prevailing in Armenia, it is unlikely that its functioning can be ensured in a normal regime without external control. According to the agreement, it should be carried out by Russian border guards - but perhaps Pashinyan wants to involve other forces of the Russian Federation in this process. Then the situation becomes even more interesting - it turns out that behind the loud statements about strengthening the military partnership with the Russian Federation for the benefit of Armenia, there is simply a preparation of the ground for fulfilling one of the conditions of surrender, signed by Yerevan after the military defeat last fall. Regarding the geopolitical consequences of a possible expansion of the Russian military presence in the region, it is worth noting that it is unlikely to help stabilize the situation. Moscow pursues its own goals in the South Caucasus, which do not coincide with the interests of the countries of the region. It wants to gain a foothold as a regional hegemon - and it is for this that it has now secured its military presence in all South Caucasian countries. Undoubtedly, the state of Russian-Turkish relations also plays a role in determining its plans. In a complex geopolitical game played by V. Putin and R.T. Erdogan, strengthening in the Caucasus can be perceived as an element of pressure on Ankara. However, from a practical point of view, the expansion of the Russian presence in the Armenian territory is unlikely to seriously affect other states. In the end, their relationship with the Russian Federation is determined by a complex agenda - which will have little impact on the additional deployment of several hundred troops in the region. Russian troops do not play any positive role in the South Caucasus - however, due to the obvious weakness of the contingent and isolation from the Russian metropolis, they will not be able to inflict any serious harm. Such plans pose a real danger only for Armenia itself. From the side, Pashinyan's statements look extremely inappropriate, demonstrating a distorted understanding of the regional reality by the Armenian authorities. They present Russian troops as a necessary condition for ensuring Armenian security - but in fact, nothing threatens it. No matter what they say and think in Yerevan, the neighbors do not want to dismember Armenia, and do not make any aggressive plans regarding its territory. The events of autumn 2020 clearly confirmed this once again - after all, the Azerbaijani operation to de-occupy Karabakh was clearly limited by internationally recognized state borders, and individual strikes on military targets on the territory of Armenia were delivered exclusively in response to shelling from these positions of the Azerbaijani civilian population. There is no reason to believe that the situation will change in the future - after all, Azerbaijan has never aspired to anything other than the restoration of its own territorial integrity. As for Karabakh, then Russia has already made it clear that it is not going to fight for it, supporting the unfounded claims of the Armenians. It would seem that now a historical opportunity is opening up for Armenia - in the end, to reconsider its policy in the region, to abandon claims to its neighbors and to establish relations with them. The development of regional partnerships is the only real path to stability, success and prosperity. However, instead of this, Pashinyan, hiding behind some imaginary threats to the security of Armenia, is ready to increase the presence of foreign troops on Armenian soil - and presents this as a victory and a path leading to the greatness of the Armenian state. And it looks like a final abandonment of real independence in favor of a Russian protectorate - a sad but logical result of the short-sighted policy of the Armenian leadership. The author is the senior researcher at the national Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine.

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