09:03     13 April 2021    

Azerbaijan is waiting for an answer to the question of how Armenia got Iskander-M missiles, which were fired at the city of Shusha in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was stated on Monday by President Ilham Aliyev at the opening of the War Trophy Park in Baku.

Azerbaijan is waiting for an answer to the question of how Armenia got Iskander-M missiles, which were fired at the city of Shusha in Nagorno-Karabakh. This was stated on Monday by President Ilham Aliyev at the opening of the War Trophy Park in Baku. Perhaps the most discussed topic of the Second Karabakh War is the use of Iskander missiles. The topic is periodically simply "exciting" information space not only in the South Caucasus. There are many military and political reasons for this. Let's try to clarify some of them. The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is a multilateral export control regime. It is an informal political understanding among 35 member states that seek to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology. In this context, the MTCR places particular emphasis on missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kg (1,100 lb) over a distance of at least 300 km (190 miles), as well as equipment, software and technology for such systems. One of the 35 signatory countries is the Russian Federation, which has pledged not to transfer missile technology and missiles with a range of more than 300 km (190 miles). According to the manufacturer's data, the launch range of Iskander-M missiles is 500 km. There is a nuance here, the Russian Federation and Armenia stated that the Iskander-E missile system, an export modification with a launch range cut down to 280 km, was supplied. However, fragments of 2 missiles found in the city of Shusha contain the code of the Iskander-M missile. It would be appropriate to note that under the designation "Iskander-E" it was also supplied to Algeria. I wonder what code is indicated on the Algerian missiles? But the question that interests us the most is where and by the army of which country were these missiles launched? It should be pointed out right away that the launch of a rocket from the territory of the Russian Federation would have been recorded by means of control of a number of countries, for this reason this version should be immediately discarded. The missiles were unambiguously launched from the territory of Armenia, taking this into account we can focus on three scenarios. Likely scenario The missile system was handed over to the Armenian army in 2016 after the "April war" and was used by Armenian military personnel with highly specialized technical support from Russian specialists. However, there is no information about the missile launches of the missiles of this complex by the Armenian military personnel. For example, it can be indicated that from May 23 to June 19, 1996, in the process of training in the use of the R-17 Elbrus missile system, Armenian servicemen launched launches at the Kapustin Yar military training ground in the Astrakhan region. Therefore, this scenario is the most convincing. Unlikely scenario The likelihood that the complex was used by personnel consisting only of Armenian military personnel is still there. Considering the high level of Russian-Armenian military cooperation, it can be assumed that the Armenian military personnel could be trained in real missile launches during the exercises of the Russian army and were able to use Iskander-M. It should be added that the guidance of these missiles does not require the involvement of other systems, such as, say, reconnaissance aircraft, which were mentioned in the press. A scenario you don't want to believe Iskander-M has been in service with the 102nd Russian base in Gyumri since 2013, and it should not be ignored that the Russian side could have used these missiles as well. Unfortunately, there are still no answers to many questions and Iskander continues to intrigue. The author is an independent military expert.

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