11:04     25 April 2024    

Editor's note: Eugene Chausovsky is a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute. Chausovsky previously served as senior Eurasia analyst at the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor for more than 10 years. His work focuses on political, economic, and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East.

In light of recent developments related to Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan's military successes, Armenia is evidently reassessing its strategic alignment with Russia and the West. This shift has involved reduced cooperation with Russia across various diplomatic and security platforms, while simultaneously increasing engagement with the EU and the US. The recent meeting on April 5 between Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and officials from the EU and US highlights this change, showcasing more specific forms of engagement. However, a complete strategic pivot from Russia towards the West presents numerous challenges for Armenia. As an official member of the CSTO, Armenia hosts thousands of Russian military personnel and maintains significant economic ties with Russia—ties that are not easily replaced by Western alternatives. Moreover, the capability and willingness of the West to serve as a robust and enduring strategic partner for Armenia remain uncertain. The situation in Ukraine provides a relevant example; here, the US and EU have struggled to maintain economic and military support during Russia’s full-scale invasion. Additional conflicts in the Middle East and competition with China further strain the West's capacity to support Armenia. Despite these challenges, there is an expectation of continued, perhaps even intensified, Western efforts to strengthen ties with Armenia amid its tensions with Russia in the upcoming months. These efforts are likely to focus more on tactical rather than strategic levels, at least in the short to medium term, and will be significantly influenced by the internal political dynamics and upcoming elections in both the US and EU.

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