11:40     12 September 2023    

Baku Tribune presents an interview with British Journalist Neil Watson.

- Armenia is bringing significant quantities of weapons and military equipment to the border with Azerbaijan. Is Yerevan really preparing for a new big war with Baku? - I think we are seeing the last desperate vestiges of deluded hope by the Garabagh Armenians. They had anticipated that, by applying delaying tactics, the unrecognised and illegal Armenian puppet separatist regime in Khankendi would remain in place. But they now know that Azerbaijan is hellbent on dismantling this so-called entity. With a new hardline unrecognised hierarchy in place in Garabagh, following the provocative illegal ‘election’ over the weekend and the ineffectiveness of Pashinyan in getting his people to accept reality, this positioning of weaponry is the insufferable death rattle of a doomed entity. Whether the main reason for stockpiling is merely posturing, I am unqualified to say. But I do feel that the remnants of the unrecognised regime are sufficiently self-deluded to launch a war, and there is a very real risk that the situation could escalate out of hand. - Armenians of the Karabakh region refuse to accept food cargo from Azerbaijan provided to them through the Azerbaijan Red Crescent Society. How would you comment on this? - The desperate Armenians are using humanitarian aid for political purposes. The Lachin-Khankendi Road is the only highway connecting Armenia with Garabagh. Garabagh and all roads are Azerbaijani territory and Azerbaijan is perfectly within its rights to preserve the Lachin-Khankendi Road for hospital and medical supplies and emergencies, with all other supplies coming via the Aghdam-Khankendi Route. By refusing supplies from the Azerbaijani Red Crescent Society and not acknowledging the provenance of the Aghdam-Khankendi Route, Armenia is not accepting Azerbaijani territorial integrity, which is contrary to the tripartite statement of November 2020 and repeated comments by Pashinyan. Also Armenia is using this situation to paint a picture of an Azerbaijan-driven ‘siege of Garabagh’ and ‘Genocide’, which has sadly been widely reported on and believed by many western politicians and media commentators. - Why did Yerevan decide to move closer to Washington? - Let us reiterate that Armenia and the Garabagh Armenians are desperate. Russia has always been the traditional supporter of Armenia, but its troubled relationship with Pashinyan meant that it allowed Armenia to lose the 44-day war. By getting closer to the US, Armenia is saying to Putin that if he does not provide immediate assistance, the Russian influence in the South Caucasus will end and be replaced by the US, their arch-enemy. At a time when Russia is being vilified by a fatigued west over the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Russia does not want to lose any friendly Soviet republics, and particularly those in strategically-important geopolitical positions, such as Armenia. I would add that it is possible that the Armenian leadership also realises that Russia is now a spent force, and that its future, ultimately, lies in good relations with the west rather than being seen as a satellite of two pariah states - Russia and Iran. - What reaction will Russia have if Azerbaijan launches an anti-terrorist operation in Karabakh with the aim of destroying the remnants of illegal Armenian armed groups? - As a humanitarian, who comes to the South Caucasus with peace and reconciliation in his heart, I hope this will be unnecessary. But my feeling is that, if Azerbaijan took action on its own territory against the illegal regime in Khankendi, Russia will not help Armenia in any concrete way. It has provided them with arms in the past. But Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. The relationship with Pashinyan has been very poor. Furthermore, Putin has to think of maintaining his own image and support at home in Russia. If he allows Russia to become involved in another conflict, more young Russian men will lose their lives. Armenia is his last outpost in the South Caucasus and is geostrategically important. But it has no resources and is logistically unimportant. I believe it will let the puppet regime fall on its sword. Murad Nacafov