Taiwan confronts Joe Biden with choice between Senate and China - INTERVIEW
Baku Tribune presents an interview with Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Christopher Newport University Taiyi Sun.
Baku Tribune presents an interview with Assistant Professor Department of Political Science Christopher Newport University Taiyi Sun.
- Chinese leader Xi Jinping has instructed his military to prepare to establish military control over Taiwan by 2027. This was stated by CIA Deputy Director David Cohen, CNN correspondent Ana Cabrera reported on Twitter. How would you comment on this? Should we take the CIA statement seriously?
- If true, this would be more of a personal calculation rather than a strategic or geopolitical assessment. Xi has always intended to reunify China under his watch. Given that his third term is likely to be secured with a fourth term uncertain, Xi obviously wants all options available to him before he leaves office. However, a military takeover is still the last resort, and the more important agenda is to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people while stabilizing the relationship with the U.S. Conquering the island without winning the people will just give Beijing another hot potato.
- The US Senate is preparing to vote on a bipartisan bill that concerns the clarification of Washington's attitude towards the status of Taiwan, as well as billions in funding for the defense of the island. China has already expressed a protest about this, which considers this document as interference in its internal affairs. Thus, President Joe Biden will have a difficult choice - to sign the bill so as not to spoil relations with the two parties, or to veto it and avoid a new aggravation of relations with China. Joe Biden found himself between the Senate and China because of the Taiwan issue. How will he proceed, in your opinion? What are the risks of signing this bill in US-China relations?
- A veto would be a political disaster for President Biden. A more viable option is to indefinitely stall the bill while taking certain pieces out (such as the 4.5 billion security aid to Taiwan) and repackage it into other bills, such as the National Defense Authorization Act. This way, the original bill could become less and less meaningful. At the same time, the Biden administration could hope for other agendas, such as Senator Manchin's energy permitting bill or the same-sex marriage bill to dominate the legislature before the midterm arrives.
- While the United States formally supports the "One China" policy, in reality it is in favor of granting Taiwan greater rights and freedoms. Proof of this is the recent high-profile visit there by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and then by a group of other American lawmakers. How do you explain it? Why were the interests of the House of Representatives above the national interests of the United States?
- The U.S. "One China policy" is different from Beijing's "One China Principle." The U.S. position was intentionally left vague so that U.S. politicians have room to interpret. The executive branch is still wary of any escalation in the Taiwan Strait and therefore does not want either side of the strait to move away from the status quo, this includes not wanting Taiwan to declare independence. However, there is no meaningful coordination mechanism between the legislature and executive branch.
The U.S. legislators often prioritize their domestic and local agenda over foreign policy. Even when they make mistakes in foreign policy, they usually could blame the White House without having to take responsibility themselves. This makes the U.S. legislators more willing to take risks on foreign policy-related issues, especially when such actions could be popular with their constituents, even when the outcome could be against the U.S. national interest.
- China has decided to impose sanctions against the heads of US defense companies Raytheon Technologies and Boeing Defense. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, the new sanctions will be a response to the approval of a $1.1 billion arms deal with Taiwan. billion dollars?
- Yes, such sanctions against U.S. individuals are designed in a way so that the message is sent, but it would also be unlikely to escalate the situation.
- How much do you think the interests of the above defense companies will be affected after the application of sanctions by China? Can you give examples of which US companies have already been hit by Chinese sanctions?
- The sanctions are not meant to hurt specific individuals or companies but only to send a message. Sometimes, the details of the consequences are also intentionally left out. We know individual legislators such as Marco Rubio have been sanctioned, and so are Speaker Pelosi and her family. Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and other U.S. defense industry giants have been sanctioned previously, most recently being in February this year and October of 2020.
- The US military will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. This was confirmed by US President Joe Biden in an interview with the 60 Seconds program, published on the CBS website on Sunday evening, September 18. Do the American people share the opinion of their president? Do you think the American people support Joe Biden's statement that "US troops, Americans and Americans, will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion"?
I don't think the regular American people is paying much attention to Taiwan, as inflation, inequality, women's rights, race relations, gun control, immigration, and other domestic challenges still draw the most attention. With the conflict in Ukraine, more Americans are going to be in favor of seeing defending Taiwan as a U.S. responsibility. However, even with such a backdrop, the Morning Consult survey conducted this summer showed only 37% of voters see defending Taiwan as a U.S. responsibility.
- The PRC press positively assessed Russia's position on Taiwan, emphasizing that Moscow firmly supports China's territorial integrity as well. And some Russian media even claim that Russia and China are moving towards a defense alliance. How justified are such forecasts? Do you think there is such a need in the face of growing geopolitical tensions?
- China and Russia's interests are still quite different, and it is only with the West's pressure that the two countries are temporarily getting closer. China is taking a neutral position in the Ukraine conflict, and Russia is also likely not heavily to get involved should there be conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. Countries like China and India are likely to stay neutral in current and future conflicts that Russia is involved in, so I don't see a defense alliance being viable between China and Russia.
Interviewed by Seymur Mammadov
- If true, this would be more of a personal calculation rather than a strategic or geopolitical assessment. Xi has always intended to reunify China under his watch. Given that his third term is likely to be secured with a fourth term uncertain, Xi obviously wants all options available to him before he leaves office. However, a military takeover is still the last resort, and the more important agenda is to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people while stabilizing the relationship with the U.S. Conquering the island without winning the people will just give Beijing another hot potato.
- The US Senate is preparing to vote on a bipartisan bill that concerns the clarification of Washington's attitude towards the status of Taiwan, as well as billions in funding for the defense of the island. China has already expressed a protest about this, which considers this document as interference in its internal affairs. Thus, President Joe Biden will have a difficult choice - to sign the bill so as not to spoil relations with the two parties, or to veto it and avoid a new aggravation of relations with China. Joe Biden found himself between the Senate and China because of the Taiwan issue. How will he proceed, in your opinion? What are the risks of signing this bill in US-China relations?
- A veto would be a political disaster for President Biden. A more viable option is to indefinitely stall the bill while taking certain pieces out (such as the 4.5 billion security aid to Taiwan) and repackage it into other bills, such as the National Defense Authorization Act. This way, the original bill could become less and less meaningful. At the same time, the Biden administration could hope for other agendas, such as Senator Manchin's energy permitting bill or the same-sex marriage bill to dominate the legislature before the midterm arrives.
- While the United States formally supports the "One China" policy, in reality it is in favor of granting Taiwan greater rights and freedoms. Proof of this is the recent high-profile visit there by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and then by a group of other American lawmakers. How do you explain it? Why were the interests of the House of Representatives above the national interests of the United States?
- The U.S. "One China policy" is different from Beijing's "One China Principle." The U.S. position was intentionally left vague so that U.S. politicians have room to interpret. The executive branch is still wary of any escalation in the Taiwan Strait and therefore does not want either side of the strait to move away from the status quo, this includes not wanting Taiwan to declare independence. However, there is no meaningful coordination mechanism between the legislature and executive branch.
The U.S. legislators often prioritize their domestic and local agenda over foreign policy. Even when they make mistakes in foreign policy, they usually could blame the White House without having to take responsibility themselves. This makes the U.S. legislators more willing to take risks on foreign policy-related issues, especially when such actions could be popular with their constituents, even when the outcome could be against the U.S. national interest.
- China has decided to impose sanctions against the heads of US defense companies Raytheon Technologies and Boeing Defense. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, the new sanctions will be a response to the approval of a $1.1 billion arms deal with Taiwan. billion dollars?
- Yes, such sanctions against U.S. individuals are designed in a way so that the message is sent, but it would also be unlikely to escalate the situation.
- How much do you think the interests of the above defense companies will be affected after the application of sanctions by China? Can you give examples of which US companies have already been hit by Chinese sanctions?
- The sanctions are not meant to hurt specific individuals or companies but only to send a message. Sometimes, the details of the consequences are also intentionally left out. We know individual legislators such as Marco Rubio have been sanctioned, and so are Speaker Pelosi and her family. Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and other U.S. defense industry giants have been sanctioned previously, most recently being in February this year and October of 2020.
- The US military will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. This was confirmed by US President Joe Biden in an interview with the 60 Seconds program, published on the CBS website on Sunday evening, September 18. Do the American people share the opinion of their president? Do you think the American people support Joe Biden's statement that "US troops, Americans and Americans, will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion"?
I don't think the regular American people is paying much attention to Taiwan, as inflation, inequality, women's rights, race relations, gun control, immigration, and other domestic challenges still draw the most attention. With the conflict in Ukraine, more Americans are going to be in favor of seeing defending Taiwan as a U.S. responsibility. However, even with such a backdrop, the Morning Consult survey conducted this summer showed only 37% of voters see defending Taiwan as a U.S. responsibility.
- The PRC press positively assessed Russia's position on Taiwan, emphasizing that Moscow firmly supports China's territorial integrity as well. And some Russian media even claim that Russia and China are moving towards a defense alliance. How justified are such forecasts? Do you think there is such a need in the face of growing geopolitical tensions?
- China and Russia's interests are still quite different, and it is only with the West's pressure that the two countries are temporarily getting closer. China is taking a neutral position in the Ukraine conflict, and Russia is also likely not heavily to get involved should there be conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. Countries like China and India are likely to stay neutral in current and future conflicts that Russia is involved in, so I don't see a defense alliance being viable between China and Russia.
Interviewed by Seymur Mammadov
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