12:04     20 June 2022    

Baku Tribune presents an interview with a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute Eugene Chausovsky.

Baku Tribune presents an interview with a senior analyst at the Newlines Institute Eugene Chausovsky. - Recently in Washington a meeting was held between Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The message of the White House following the talks notes that Sullivan highly appreciated Azerbaijan's actions to ensure the energy security of Europe, the parties discussed efforts to further diversify regional energy supplies. What else do you think Gadzhiev and Sullivan could discuss? In your opinion, could the American side ask or demand that Azerbaijan take the side of the United States, and not Russia, around the situation in Ukraine? Because there is an opinion that the United States offers neutral countries to make a choice on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war - either the West or Russia. How would you comment on this? - In terms of the discussions between U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev, there are several important factors to consider. One is US support for diplomatic efforts surrounding Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, particularly as it relates to making sure that Russia does not dominate the mediation process. Another is the issue of the Ukraine conflict, where the US does indeed view Azerbaijan as an important player in assisting European energy diversification efforts away from Russia. However, Washington is unlikely to place major pressure on Azerbaijan to side with the US on the situation in Ukraine, knowing that Baku pursues a multi-vectoral foreign policy. Instead, Azerbaijan’s practical assistance on energy diversification is what is more important than political/rhetorical support for the US. - Do you think we are seeing signs of the Third World War today against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war? Will the confrontation between the West and Russia against the background of the war in Ukraine lead to the Third World War? - While the Russian-Ukrainian war shows no signs of ending anytime soon, it is unlikely to lead to a Third World War in terms of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the West. Both Russia and NATO have an interest in preventing such an outcome, and both sides will be careful to avoid direct clashes. That being said, the economic and political consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war have already reached global proportions, as can be seen on its impact on energy and agriculture trade and broader global inflationary pressures. - What are the risks of the war in Ukraine for the South Caucasus region? - The risks of the war come primarily from an economic and diplomatic standpoint, as Western sanctions against Russia can have a significant impact on the Caucasus countries, just as the broader standoff between Moscow and the West have created greater political polarization. It is possible that breakaway territories like Abkhazia and South Ossetia seek closer ties with Russia, just as Georgia attempts to further integrate with the EU and NATO. However, a direct spillover from the Ukrainian conflict in terms of military action in the Caucasus remains unlikely. - There is an opinion that the risk of using nuclear weapons increases more and more against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Do you think there will be a nuclear war? If so, what factors might contribute to such a war? - While the risk of nuclear weapons usage cannot be entirely ruled out, it is not likely to happen in the same way that a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO is unlikely. Both sides are aware of the mutually assured destruction and have an interest in avoiding this scenario. But tactical miscalculations are still possible, especially if the war continues to drag on or escalate. - How do you see the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war? - The Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to continue from a military standpoint at least until Moscow achieves its objective of full control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. If and when that objective is achieved, there can be the potential for diplomatic negotiations to resume and some kind of ceasefire agreement to take place. However, efforts by Russia to formalize its control of Ukrainian territory and the Ukrainian government’s likely refusal to agree to formal territorial concessions will complicate any comprehensive agreements or peace efforts. Thus, the war is likely to drag on for quite some time and further deepen the Moscow-West standoff in the process. Interviewed by Seymur Mammadov