21:15     15 January 2022    

An interview to Baku Tribune was given by Taiyi Sun, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Christopher Newport University.

An interview to Baku Tribune was given by Taiyi Sun, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Christopher Newport University. - Relations between Lithuania and China are now experiencing an acute crisis. It is connected with the decision of Vilnius to open a representative office of Taiwan on its territory. What do you think influenced the decision of the Lithuanian authorities to open a representative office of Taiwan? Was it outside interference, or was it an initiative coming from the Lithuanian authorities themselves? My speculation is that Vilnius underestimated the seriousness of naming the representative office. Taiwan’s representative office in Washington, D.C. is called Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO). Using Taipei instead of Taiwan, and having the office be more about economic and cultural issues rather than political issues was the understood compromise made between Beijing, Washington, and Taipei. However, the current government in Taipei, being encouraged by the U.S. and many other western countries to get more exposure on the international stage, has been trying to replace the “Taipei” with “Taiwan” when setting up new offices, making the office sound more like an official embassy. A similar incident happened when Taiwan was opening up an office in Guyana. But when Guyana realized that it had been tricked by Taipei, it backed out. Vilnius was probably facing more pressure from its domestic constituency and possibly other countries, and decided not to back down. It is also possible that Lithuania was tricked and did not want to admit that it was tricked. - Why should Lithuania spoil relations with China, in your opinion? Lithuania probably did not anticipate such significant reactions from China. However, when the publicity is high, sometimes there is no room to back down as the humiliation could be unbearable. Lithuania was probably seeking ways to reconcile with China without having to replace “Taiwan” in the name of the office. Kowtowing to the pressure from Beijing does not make good politics in Europe. - What retaliatory measures are being taken by the official Beijing in response to the anti-Chinese campaign of Lithuania? What measures is going to be taken in the future? How far is China willing to go on this issue? - Beijing is rather strategic in dealing with Taipei’s moves. When Taipei opened its office in Guyana, Beijing intervened. However, when Taipei opened an office in Somaliland, Beijing decided not to bother since Somaliland itself does not have too much external sovereignty as its legitimacy is questionable – why spend political capital when the entity is questionable itself? There is no need to give Taipei more spotlight in Beijing’s view. Beijing’s intervention in Lithuania is to prevent a domino effect, as similar behaviors could potentially be replicated in other European countries. Thus, Beijing is willing to go as far as needed to stop this trend. However, Beijing also understands that it doesn’t have to go very far, as it is much more difficult to change the name of an existing office than giving a name to a new office when it is opening. Most other European countries already have a Taipei representative office. - In your opinion, how will the severance of relations with Lithuania affect China's European projects implemented within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative? - China’s retaliatory tactics were effective for the specific issue, but similar tactics may have already halted the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), a deal of geopolitical significance. Chinese decision-makers are certainly aware that the severance of relations with Lithuania could affect other EU-China cooperation. However, Taiwan is Beijing’s vital interest and is most prioritized. Thus, China probably expects further setbacks to the EU-China relationship, but as long as other countries will stop flirting with China’s red lines, China most likely will still take the risk. - In your opinion, how will the dispute between Lithuania and China end? There is really no need to further escalate the situation. I hope a deal could be brokered by other EU leaders between Lithuania and China quietly so that Taipei could still get its cultural and economic representative office in Lithuania, while the relationship between Lithuania and mainland China could be normalized. If Lithuania and Beijing both choose not to back down, then, in the long run, some economic shocks could potentially be absorbed through the globalized trading system, too. However, Beijing could continue to suffer from its lost soft power, while Lithuania will suffer economically. Seymur Mammadov